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New Hampshire Primary — Pollsters Can Be Dead Wrong

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

What happened to this “Change” thing? Didn’t the polls tell us that Obama had a 10 point lead and he might “win by double-digits”? Wasn’t Mitt Romney catching the old fart “Washington insider” McCain?

New Hampshire (current) Results: Dems: Clinton 39%, Obama 37% Rep: McCain 37%, Romney 32%.

The polling was way off — but that really means when people enter the voting booth and are faced with the choice of “hope” over “experience” or “presidential” over “experience” — they choose “Experience”.

Voting 2

I know this is an over simplification of a very dynamic set of choices; but I believe that the voters choosing the Democratic candidate thought “who stands a better chance of beating the Republicans in November?” The Republican choice was “message” over “style”.

So my first primary prediction was a bit fat “0” which is the same score for the highly paid pollsters and pundits. (see: Caucus This — The Real Proof Will Be In The Primaries )

This will be an exciting Presidential race — it’s on to Michigan and Nevada.

Posted: 2126PT 01/08/07


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2 Comments leave one →
  1. cmblake6 permalink
    Wednesday, January 9, 2008 1:04 pm

    Damnit people! Work for and towards FRED! He is the ONE true conservative with sense.

  2. Sunday, January 13, 2008 6:57 pm

    it might be the “bradley effect.”

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