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Caucus This — The Real Proof Will Be In The Primaries

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Okay it’s time to take the training wheels off the bicycle and see if the Presidential hopefuls can really ride.

Hillary down

The results from the Iowa Caucus are in and the “winners” are Barack Obama for the Democrats and Mike Huckabee for the Republicans. What’s more interesting is how everyone else placed: John Edwards came in second, narrowly edging out Hillary Clinton for third. Several months ago it was assumed that Hillary would beat Obama. The Republican side figured Mitt Romney over Huckabee.

There are many primaries to go between now and June. New Hampshire is next on January 8th and it will be interesting too see how much Obama can ride this victory and how nasty and desperate Hillary gets.

Here’s how I call it for January:

New Hampshire (1/08) Dems: Obama, Clinton, Edwards Rep: Romney, McCain, Huckabee

Michigan (01/15) Dems: Obama, Edwards, Clinton Rep: Romney, McCain, Giuliani

Nevada (1/19) Dems: Clinton, Obama, Edwards Rep: McCain, Giuliani, Romney

South Carolina (1/26) Dems: Obama, Edwards, Clinton Rep: Huckabee, McCain, Romney

Florida (1/29) Dems: Clinton, Edwards, Obama Rep: Giuliani, Romney, McCain

Then on February 5th, Super Tuesday, with primaries in 18 states for both parties: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah. (see all the Primaries and Caucus dates here)
This one is for all the marbles and I predict the winners will be: Democrats Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans.

I’m already tired of all this “hope” and “change” talk – let’s get on to “end illegal immigration”, “the surge continues” and “let’s kick some terrorist ass”.

I’ll keep score on how my very non-scientific predictions go as we crawl very slowly to the elections in November.

Posted: 2200PT 01/03/07


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